Contrary to expectations, global oil prices, which have touched a 21-year high, are unlikely to fall substantially even if oil producer cartel OPEC raises production, industry officials said on Thursday.
The Netherlands has emerged as India's fifth-largest export destination in 2021-22 (FY22), jumping from its 10th position a year ago. Exports to the fifth-largest economy in the European Union (EU) bolted 94 per cent to $12.5 billion in the financial year ended March 31. In FY22, the Netherlands surpassed Hong Kong, Singapore, the UK, Germany, and Nepal to become India's largest export destination in the EU. Germany, which was earlier India's top European export destination (eighth position), has now dropped two ranks to 10th place.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest monthly oil market report projected the world's third-biggest energy consumer to add 0.39 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil demand in 2022. India's oil demand rose from 4.51 million barrels per day in 2020 to 4.76 million bpd in 2021, recording a 5.61 per cent growth.
Petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to be increased despite firming raw material costs because of upcoming general elections next year, Moody's Investors Service said. Three state-owned fuel retailers -- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) -- which control roughly 90 per cent of the market, have kept petrol and diesel prices on freeze for a record 18 months in a row. This is despite the raw material (crude oil) cost surging last year, leading to heavy losses in first half of 2022-23 fiscal year before easing oil prices propelled them to profitability.
The importance of China as India's top trading partner cannot be understated.
Oil producers cartel OPEC's share in India's oil imports fell to an all-time low of 46 per cent in April as purchases of cheaper Russian oil peaked, industry data showed. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) nations, mainly in the Middle East and Africa, had a 72 per cent share of all crude oil India imported in April 2022. This share slid to 46 per cent in April 2023, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
India's crude oil imports are coming in from a changing mix of countries, with the top three accounting for around 60 per cent of total imports. Russia emerged as the largest source of crude oil imports for India in June, as per the latest available data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The data which is released with a lag, showed that Russian imports accounted for 24 per cent of the total crude imports into the country.
The country's exports grew by 47.19 per cent to $35.17 billion on account of healthy growth in the outbound shipments of petroleum, engineering, and gems and jewellery, according to the provisional data of the commerce ministry. Imports during the month also rose by 59.38 per cent to $46.40 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $11.23 billion. Exports of petroleum, engineering, and gems and jewellery in July increased to $3.82 billion, $2.82 billion and $1.95 billion respectively, the data showed.
India's exports contracted by 22 per cent, the steepest decline in the last three years, to $32.97 billion in June on account of global demand slowdown, especially in the Western markets like the US and Europe. According to the data of the commerce ministry, the trade deficit in June stood at $20.3 billion against $22.07 billion in the same month last year due to a fall in exports and imports. The inbound shipments during the month under review declined by a steep 17.48 per cent to $53.10 billion.
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
India imports about 25 million tonnes of oil from Iraq each year.
Major General S C N Jatar, who passed into the ages on Monday night, thwarted anti-national forces at the peak of the Assam agitation. Colonel Anil A Athale (retd) salutes this officer and gentleman.
India's import of cheap Russian oil scaled another record in May and is now more than the combined oil bought from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and the US, industry data showed. India took 1.96 million barrels a day from Russia in May, 15 per cent more than the previous high in April, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa. Russia now makes up for nearly 42 per cent of all crude oil India imported in May.
Uncertainty looms over India's export outlook, with the new Covid-19 variant Omicron spreading rapidly across the country's key shipment destinations. With the US and parts of Europe witnessing more than 100,000 Covid-19 cases a day, exporters expect some disruption. However, there may not be an immediate decline in exports from India because the order books remain strong at least for the next few weeks, they said.
Investors are showing some interest in the downstream energy cycle. Refiners and marketers, especially the public sector (PSU) oil marketing companies (OMCs) could see a revival of marketing margins. Lower crude oil and gas prices may also improve margins in industries like paints, logistics, synthetic fabrics, plastics, and fertilisers. In the medium-term, however, there could be a supply overhang affecting OMCs as new refining capacities are scheduled to be commissioned, especially in China, and this may lead to a drop in the refining margins as capacity would be surplus to demand until and unless there's a pick-up in global growth.
Exporters on Thursday demanded fiscal incentives, tweaking in customs duties on certain products and credit at affordable rates in the forthcoming Budget to boost exports and create jobs. In a pre-budget virtual meeting with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar is affecting exports' competitiveness and the sector requires more support. "Creation of employment is the biggest challenge faced by the country...We would urge the government to provide fiscal support to units which provide additional employment in the export sector," the exporter's body said.
Imports rise at highest pace in more than 2 years as crude oil price spikes.
The country's exports surged 49.85 per cent to $35.43 billion in July on account of healthy growth in petroleum, engineering, and gems and jewellery segments, even as the trade deficit widened to $10.97 billion during the month, official data showed on Friday. Imports during the month also rose by about 63 per cent to $46.40 billion, as per the data released by the commerce ministry.
It's the sovereign right of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to decide on the oil production capacities, Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said Friday. Refraining from commenting on the controversial decision of OPEC on cutting oil production by two million barrels a day, which has taken the world by surprise, Puri said it is likely to be scrutinized very carefully. During an interaction with a group of Indian reporters, he said that India as one of the major consumers of oil and gas also has a major say in the global oil market.
India's exports dipped deeper in the negative zone.
Margins for the oil refining and retailing sector have moved off their peaks, and the average integrated margins (refining plus marketing) for oil marketing companies (OMCs) have normalised. The ascent in crude oil prices, combined with static retail prices, has depressed marketing margins for diesel and petrol. However, the fall in marketing margins has been offset by increased gross refining margins (GRMs).
Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as the market prepared for a gradual increase of Iranian exports into an already oversupplied market from 2016.
'Many countries believe that if they join BRICS, they will be seen as emerging countries and their stature will be enhanced.' 'G-20 still has common action plans while BRICS does not do that much.'
After recording positive growth for two months in a row, India's exports dipped marginally by 0.25 per cent to $27.67 billion in February and trade deficit widened to $12.88 billion, according to preliminary data released by the government on Tuesday. Imports grew 6.98 per cent to $40.55 billion during the month, the data showed. The trade deficit stood at $10.16 billion in February 2020. Exports during April-February 2020-21 were $255.92 billion, compared with $291.87 billion during the same period of last year, exhibiting a negative growth of 12.32 per cent.
India's exports fell for the fourth straight month in June as shipments of key segments like petroleum and textiles declined but the country's trade turned surplus for the first time in 18 years as imports dropped by a steeper 47.59 per cent.
Exports in June rose by 23.52 per cent to $40.13 billion while the trade deficit ballooned to a record level of $26.18 billion mainly due to jump in gold and crude oil imports, the government data said on Thursday. The country's export growth in May was 20.55 per cent. Imports expanded by 57.55 per cent to $66.31 billion in June compared to the year-ago month, the data showed.
The country's exports in March 2022 rose 19.76 per cent to $42.22 billion on account of healthy performance by sectors such as petroleum products, engineering, and leather, even as trade deficit during the month widened to $18.51 billion. In March 2021, exports stood at $35.26 billion, according to a commerce ministry data released on Wednesday. Last month, imports grew 24.21 per cent to $60.74 billion, it showed. Trade deficit stood at $13.64 billion in March 2021.
The country's exports in December surged 37 per cent on an annual basis to $37.29 billion, the highest-ever monthly figure, government data showed on Monday.
The latest flashpoint in West Asia has derailed India's preliminary plans to resume crude oil imports from Iran, officials said. In January, officials of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas had told Business Standard that the government had been studying proposals for the same, given that India was trying to expand sources of imports. "We are always monitoring the situation when it comes to crude flows.
'Data-dependence means you can raise or drop rates. The present stance is only for raising rates.'
Officials hint the visit could finally see a formal defence industrial road map being adopted by both nations.
India will soon become a green hydrogen exporting country, the road transport and highways minister told reporters before leaving for Parliament in the car, which is the first of its kind in India.
After contracting for six months in a row, the country's exports grew by 5.27 per cent to $27.4 billion in September, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday.
While the import of gold fell by about 11 per cent to $2.58 billion in February as against $2.89 billion in the corresponding month last fiscal, inward shipments of petroleum products were down by nearly 8 per cent to $9.37 billion.
Trade deficit during the month narrowed to USD 14.54 billion from USD 15.3 billion in January 2020. It was USD 15.44 billion in December 2020.
Price of non-subsidised cooking gas (LPG) was today cut by Rs 43.50 per cylinder as international oil rates slumped to their lowest since May 2009.
India has taken up the issue of high oil prices with producer nations and OPEC, demanding affordable rates, Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Rameswar Teli told the Lok Sabha on Monday. Petrol and diesel prices have shot up to record highs across the country after relentless price increases since early May. Petrol is retailing above Rs 100 a litre in more than a dozen states.
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